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I recently talked about some of the bailout plans in The Fatal Flaw in Housing Bailout Plans. But somehow I missed the 'Bear Stearns/EMC Mod Squad' to Help Keep Customers in Their Homes. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Mortgage Corporation, a leading mortgage servicer that has specialized in subprime and Alt-A loans for 15 years, announced the formation of the 'EMC Mod Squad' - a loan modification team dedicated to helping delinquent borrowers avoid foreclosure on their homes. Teaming up with local community groups, the EMC Mod Squad will meet with targeted groups of EMC Mortgage customers across the country. Concentrating on cities with higher numbers of at-risk EMC Mortgage customers, the team will conduct educational workshops and explore possible financial restructuring for these homeowners. The EMC Mod Squad is comprised of 50 designated loan workout specialists and EMC ...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? STUART — A consumer watchdog group founded by Ralph Nader has come to the defense of a Stuart real estate broker who is being sued by Lennar Corp. The suit stems from the use of the home builder's name in a Web site that criticizes the quality of several of Lennar's houses. Public Citizen, based in Washington, is filing a friend of the court brief asking Judge Larry Shack to throw out Lennar's trademark infringement claims against Mike Morgan because his 'gripe site' is protected by the Constitutional right to free speech. 'The notion that you can't identify the subject of your criticism by using the name of the company you're criticizing is absurd,' said Paul Levy, a lawyer with Public Citizen. 'We think it's a matter of simple free speech.' The brief was sent overnight Tuesday for delivery to the Circuit Court ...

The proposal by Bernanke and Congress to up the lending limit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not solve a thing if both are capital impaired and cannot make new loans. That seems to be the situation as Freddie Mac Loses $2 Billion and Seeks New Capital. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The proposal by Bernanke and Congress to up the lending limit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not solve a thing if both are capital impaired and cannot make new loans. That seems to be the situation as Freddie Mac, the nation's No. 2 buyer and guarantor of home loans, lost $2 billion in the third quarter and said Tuesday it must raise fresh capital to meet regulatory requirements. Its shares fell more than 26 percent. The mortgage financier said it is 'seriously considering' cutting in half its dividend in the fourth quarter and has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings I...

I received an interesting Email tonight from a friend about punishing dollar holders. Here goes, from Conor: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? I sat at my desk 30 minutes before the FOMC release wondering what the Fed would do. And then they cut 50bps. So that's how it's going to be, eh Ben? What followed was what you'd expect. Stocks were up strongly, with the S&P up 2.9%, homebuilders up 6%, bank and brokerage stocks up huge, gold up $15 to a new 27-year high, gold equities up 4%, crude up again to close over $82, and the dollar weaker, finishing at a new 15-year low. I don't suspect that today will get a chapter in the eventual tome on the fall of the dollar, but it certainly merits a footnote. When gold and crude are making near-record highs and the dollar is making near-record lows, I think prudence dictates rate hikes, not rate cuts -- as Marc Faber and Jim Rogers poi...

CBS Marketwatch reports ISM factory index up in September. Hurricane Katrina sparks higher prices and new orders. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Instead of depressing activity, there was a rush of new orders from manufacturers concerned about losing supplies. In addition, prices shot up as those manufacturers appeared willing to pay top dollar for the goods they needed. The ISM index rose to 59.4% in September from 53.6% in August. Read full survey. This is the highest level since August 2003 and well outside of expectations. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch called for the index to slip to 52.1 % in the wake of Katrina. See Economic Calendar. Economists were cheered by the headline, which they said alleviated some concern about the national impact of the two hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast in the past two months. The Fed said Katrina would only have a near-...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he's 'absolutely' prepared to use all the tools at his disposal to address the credit crisis in the U. S. financial system, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said Tuesday following a closed-door meeting with Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, told reporters after the meeting that he put no political pressure on Bernanke to lower the federal funds rate. The Fed and the Treasury should do more to encourage banks to take advantage of the discount window for short-term funds and to open up their lending windows to customers, Dodd said. 'A little more moral suasion would be helpful.' 'The Fed gets it and understands it,' Dodd said, but 'the Treasury doesn't.' Dodd said the important thing is to keep people in their homes. Dodd urged...

For several months now I have been talking with Mike Morgan / Morgan Florida, a real estate broker serving the treasure coast area of Florida. In our most recent conversation Morgan tells me 'prices have already fallen 10%, regardless of what median prices show. In addition transaction volumes have fallen off the cliff'.Unlike other brokers I have talked to, Morgan is expecting 'further declines in the neighborhood of 20% or so, more on condos'. He is advising his clients that 'The market has changed and that sellers must accept that reality if they want to get their house sold'. Realtors openly telling their clients to expect substantial further declines simply is not the norm. Back in January and February Morgan said that 'Centex was so desperate to close deals before their March 31 fiscal year end they were offering $60,000 select home sites that were not selling well. But that is just the start of it. Centex was also offering 6% commissions to the agency...

If ever words were spoken that will quickly be eaten here they are:Paulson says 'Absolutely' no recession. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he's talking with Wall Street leaders on Tuesday about how to strengthen the U. S. economy and capital markets. Paulson commented in an interview on CNBC television ahead of a public speech at Columbia University. Paulson made no changes in U. S. policy, saying that a strong dollar is in the national interest, and calling on China to embark on structural reforms that would create more flexibility in its currency and allow for greater domestic consumption. He said the fiscal deficit is improving, but its long-term stability depends on reforms in enh1ment spending. Asked if the economy faces a recession in the near term, Paulson declared, 'Absolutely not.'I find it interesting that Bush has managed to find yet another shill willing to say that 'a strong dollar is in the national interest' while prodding China float th...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Since becoming Dallas Fed president, I have been stressing the importance of globalization—the trend toward falling international barriers to goods, services, people, money and ideas, a process aided by the interconnective properties of technology. It may well be the key development of our era yet, we do not understand it very well. Hoping to change that, I put in place a new research program at the Dallas Fed that seeks a more systematic understanding of how globalization impacts the pricing behavior of businesses and its implications for inflation and monetary policy. On the inflation-fighting front, globalization has been a positive factor. Based on our work at the Dallas Fed, we know that globalization has provided a powerful counterforce to domestic inflationary pressures. Some of these are obvious. By lowering trade barriers and by opening to new economi...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The above sentence may seem shocking to many, but before we proceed we must agree on a definition of inflation. The definition of inflation that I am using is this: Of those 10 points, only the last one pertains to US inflation. If someone can tell me to what extent oil is rising because of monetary printing or expansion of credit in the US, then we can talk about oil in terms of inflation. Since this cannot be done, it is impossible to measure the price rise in oil effect here is very important. One must put the horse in front of the cart to talk about inflation in any meaningful sense. The same applies to copper, grains, and other commodities. For example: Grain shortages in Australia, drought, pestilence, hurricanes, and bad governmental policies in ethanol do not constitute inflation either. Nor can the Fed do anything about any of those. However, that doe...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? British lenders are shunning the Bank of England and turning instead to the European Central Bank on a massive scale, taking advantage of much lower interest rates and guaranteed anonymity to weather the credit crunch. EU sources say Britain's banks have been clamouring for money in Frankfurt, accounting for a substantial chunk of the €190bn (?132bn) lent last week in the ECB's variable tender operation. 'It is fair to say they have been borrowing from the ECB on a very large scale. It's cheap, so why not,' said one official. Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, said British reliance on ECB funds has become to big that it is leaving a clear footprint in the currency markets, forcing up sterling on the days following ECB tenders as the banks switch euros into pounds – typically Thursdays, Fridays, and Mondays. 'There's been a...

There was a stunning series of charts in the latest Fed Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Measures of Supply and Demand for C&I Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageMeasures of Supply and Demand for Consumer Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageMeasures of Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageThe above charts show a huge drop in the willingness of banks to lend and the willingness of consumers to borrow. Those charts are in addition to the obvious fallout in subprime residential. Car Dealers: 'Tenuous financial state' leaves consumers waryNew car sales fall as buyers shun debt

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? 'While many economists are forecasting a weaker economic environment for 2007, small - business owners are, according to the results, expressing no signs of an economic downturn,' said Scott Anderson, senior economist for the San Francisco bank. 'These optimistic findings indicate expectations for a rebound in activity this year, as the forces that have been inhibiting growth prospects, such as rising energy prices and interest rates and stagnant wage growth, reverse course.' The quarterly index is calculated based on a nationwide survey of about 600 small-business owners conducted by the Gallup Organization and sponsored by Wells Fargo & Co. , the nation's leading small-business advocacy association suggests otherwise. On January 9th the Northern Trust reported on the The survey results from the small business sector are not encouragin...

The six day Doha round of WTO trade talks in Hong Kong just ended. At the last minute some compromises were accepted preventing a total collapse of the talks. At the heart of the matter is the position of the US and EU who want more access to selling products and services in third world countries, but third world countries want the US and EU and others to end agricultural subsidies first. The target date set by Brazil, India, Venezuela, and many African countries was 2010. Heading into the final hours, the talks nearly collapsed over that date but a last minute compromise was accepted to stretch the date out to 2013.Bear in mind this 'agreement' has yet to be ratified by the US Senate and should that fail, talks would have to start all over. The following articles should give everyone an idea of just how cantankerous the negotiations were as well as what the remaining roadblocks are. Here is a synopsis of what really happened:As late as Saturday December 17 2005, Peter Mandelso...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The Federal Reserve, declaring that increased economic uncertainty poses risks for U. S. business growth, announced Friday that it has approved a half-percentage point cut in its discount rate on loans to banks. The action was the most dramatic effort yet by the central bank to restore calm to global financial markets which have been roiled in the past week by a widening credit crisis. The decision means that the discount rate, the interest rate that the Fed charges to make direct loans to banks will be lowered to 5.75 per cent, down from 6.25 per cent. The Fed did not change its target for the more important federal funds rate, which has remained at 5.25 per cent for more than a year. In a statement explaining the board's action, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said that while incoming data suggest the economy is continuing to exp...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Ryder System Inc (R) cut its profit forecast on Monday saying that softness in the U. S. economy has spread beyond the housing sector, sending the truck leasing and logistics company's shares down more than 6 percent. 'Economic conditions have softened considerably in more industries beyond those related to housing and construction,' Ryder said in a statement. Ryder cited less-than-expected demand in its commercial rental product lines and lower prices for used vehicles. Ryder's commercial rental business fluctuates with market demand and is more directly affected by a soft market than Ryder's long-term rental operations. The U. S. trucking sector has been hit by weak volumes since the third quarter of 2006, with some analysts describing this slowdown as a 'freight recession.' affected other trucking companies as well. J. B. Hunt (J...

The UK Telegraph is writing about a the near collapse at Bear Stearns and the subsequent cover-up by Merrill Lynch. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? When creditors led by Merrill Lynch forced a fire-sale of assets, they inadvertently revealed that up to $2 trillion of debt linked to the crumbling US sub-prime and 'Alt A' property market was falsely priced on books. Even A-rated securities fetched just 85pc of face value. B-grades fell off a cliff. The banks halted the sale before 'price discovery' set off a wider chain-reaction. 'It was a cover-up,' says Charles Dumas, global strategist at Lombard Street Research. He believes the banks alone have $750bn in exposure. They may have to call in loans. Not even the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has a handle on the 'opaque' instruments taking over world finance. 'Who now holds these risks, and can they...

This is just a quick update on the continuing saga at Bear Stearns. EMC Mortgage Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Bears Stearns, seems to be swimming in REOs. You can get the file yourself by subscribing to EMC Mortgage Corporation's Properties For Sale report or you can look at a Totaled Excel File Extract of Bear Stearns' REOs that I asked Bart at NowAndFutures to host. The choice is yours. Bart totaled the original 178 PDF for the benefit of all of us and came to a total of $779 million. Of course that is the 'book value' off all that stuff. We do not know what it is really worth on the open market or what the value supposedly was six months ago. But this is just a piece of the tip of the iceberg. The Mark to Market IcebergJohn Succo on Minyanville is writing Bear Stearns Fund Reveals Tip of the CDO Iceberg

The Associated press is reporting Overdue Credit Card Bills Hit Record High. The scapegoat du jour is of course 'high gas prices'. Let's take a look: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Charge it! That familiar refrain is producing an unwanted response for more Americans: Your bill is overdue! Surging energy prices, low personal savings and the higher cost of borrowing have combined to produce a record level of overdue credit card bills. The American Bankers Association reported Wednesday that the percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due climbed to an all-time high of 4.81 percent in the April-to-June period. It could grow in the months ahead, experts said. The previous high of 4.76 percent came during the first three months of the year, in keeping with a generally steady rise over the past several years. 'The last two quarters have not been pretty,' said J...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Cargo containers crammed with foreign-made goods that were supposed to set a record in August at major U. S. ports took an unexpected turn, with imports sinking 1.4% in another sign of the slowing of the economy. Imports of items as diverse as toys and tiles could also be lower in September and October, when retailers will be stocking shelves for the holidays, because shell-shocked shoppers are expected to continue to pull back. The slump in oceangoing imports unloaded at the 10 largest U. S. container ports in August was the first drop since Global Insight began its monthly Port Tracker report in 2005. The number stunned some port watchers. 'When I first saw these numbers, I called the researchers and asked them if they had left a column out of the spreadsheet. I thought it was a typo,' said Craig Shearman, vice president of the National Retail Federa...

Before we get to mergers and takeovers, let's take a quick look at autos. I will tie the two together shortly. According to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? in the world's three largest established markets -- the US, Europe, and Japan -- in 2008, further squeezing global car makers' margins, but said the booming BRIC nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- hold some hope for growth. S&P expects North American industry sales to decline to the lowest level in 10 years in the uncertain economic environment, and said the severe downturn in the commercial-vehicle market shows no sign of easing. However, the BRIC nations, which represent 20 pct of global car sales, are predicted to increase strongly by more than 10 pct per year over the medium term, S&P said. Yet, even if demand is robust, profitability in China has already sunk ...

The question (and answer) of the day comes from Mike Morgan at MorganFlorida. Morgan asks himself Is Housing Bottoming Out? Here is Morgan's answer:Some might be thinking that the housing market has bottomed out based on today’s mortgage apps. We’re at a 4 year low for mortgage applications. Is this the bottom? Not a chance. No way. No how. Well, maybe in a sweet dream. But realistically this is just the start of the decline in the numbers that will reported for the next 6-8 months (at least). I am in the field everyday with buyers, sellers, flippers, homeowners, builders, the subs that are out of work, and the mortgage brokers and h1 companies that are slow as molasses. I see it. I hear it. I live it, and now I am sweating it. We are in more trouble than I thought a month or two ago. For those of you that have not been on a tour of the real estate market with me, now is the time. In the past 3 weeks things have started to crumble on the outside, meaning builders are publicly makin...

Before diving into a discussion on 'Swaptions', let's explain the term. 'Swaptions' are options on interest-rate swaps and a way to hedge (or out and out bet on) expected moves in treasuries. UBS says Options on Two-Year Interest-Rate Swaps are `Expensive'. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? ', let's explain the term. 'Swaptions' are options on interest-rate swaps and a way to hedge (or out and out bet on) expected moves in treasuries. Options on two-year interest rate swaps are 'expensive' relative to those for longer maturities and will cheapen in the next year because turmoil in global credit markets will ease, according to UBS AG. UBS strategists recommend selling so-called 1y2y swaptions and buying 1y10y swaptions. The strategy is a bet normalized volatility will fall on the 1y2y swaptions more quickly than it does on the 1y10y over the next ...